'With China falling out of favour, India is where investors see the demographic and digital dividend apart from the benefits of reforms playing out.' 'Your prime minister has also done a great job of sharing this story with the world.'
The public has benefited from this decline in crude oil, which has translated into lower prices of petrol and diesel.
Lower crude oil prices are expected to bring down jet fuel rates by 10 per cent in September, but passengers are unlikely to get the benefit as airlines are reluctant to reduce their fares.
Oil prices slid to a three-week low on Wednesday on expectations of falling global demand after India , the world's sixth largest oil and gas consumer, lowered its fuel subsidies.
In 16 days, petrol price has been hiked by Rs 8.3 per litre and diesel by Rs 9.46 - a record increase in rates of the fuel in any fortnight since pricing was deregulated in April 2002.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has said falling oil prices act as a cushion for CAD, adding it is time India does away with restrictions on gold imports
Imports too dipped by 23.1 per cent to $25.41 billion in the month under review as against $33 billion in April 2015.
The maximum fall was witnessed in dairy prices.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
It was a 'turbulent year' for global oil markets.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the eighth consecutive month to 4.73 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power. The wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation rate was 4.95 per cent in December 2022 and 13.68 per cent in January 2022. Inflation in food articles, however, rose to 2.38 per cent in January, from (-) 1.25 per cent in December, 2022.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Wednesday said for the first time fiscal deficit target will be met without budgetary cuts.
Markets continued to fall on Monday, with the Sensex declining 94 points as investors remained cautious amid unabated selling by foreign funds and elevated crude oil prices ahead of the RBI's policy decision later this week. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 93.91 points or 0.17 per cent to end at 55,675.32. During the day, it tanked 473.49 points or 0.84 per cent to 55,295.74.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
'China's economy continues to slow and the US Fed may still hike rates before the end of the year.'
The excise duty cut will translate into a reduction of Rs 9.5 a litre on petrol and Rs 7 a litre in diesel after taking into account its impact on other levies.
'What the US appears to be doing is to force India to be "the buyer of last resort", on whom their products can be dumped, 1.4 billion people have to eat something, so why not eat American corn?' 'What is exercising the Trump lot is the fact that most of the farms are in solidly Republican Midwestern states: Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin,' points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Cheaper crude oil weakens rupee even as core sector growth revives
Retail inflation fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March, mainly due to a decline in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The inflation figure in March is within the RBI's comfort zone as it is below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period.
Among the 30 Sensex firms, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance and JSW Steel were the biggest gainers. Asian Paints, Maruti, Nestle, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards.
The government on Tuesday ruled out any immediate cut in petrol and diesel prices in line with fall in global oil prices, but said a reduction may be considered once crude prices fall below $50 a barrel.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
'If the epidemic is sharply contained in a month or two, we have a huge buying opportunity. 'If not, we are staring at a serious economic crisis, the contours of which we are totally unaware of,' warns Debashis Basu.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, Adani Ports and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. JSW Steel emerged as the only gainer.
The fall in crude prices has added to the gains.
The government has slashed by up to 20 per cent the supplies of cheaper domestically produced natural gas to city retailers -- a move that may result in Rs 4-6 per kg hike in the price of CNG sold to automobiles, unless excise duty on the fuel is cut, sources said. Natural gas pumped from below the ground and from under the seabed from sites ranging from the Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal within India is the raw material that is turned into CNG for sale to automobiles and piped cooking gas to households.
As of now, the custom duty on gold is 10 per cent.
An oil crisis is set to further hit the fragile global economy.
The BSE Sensex and Nifty fell more than 2 per cent on Tuesday, heading for their biggest daily loss since the midst of the rupee crisis in 2013
Petrol price on Thursday was cut by Rs 6.07 per litre and diesel price by Rs 11.75 in Delhi as oil companies passed on a record reduction in excise duty rates to consumers. Buckling under pressure, the government had on Wednesday cut excise duty on petrol by Rs 5 per litre and that on diesel by Rs 10 a litre to give reprieve to consumers battered by record high retail fuel prices. Since states charge local sales tax or VAT not just on the base price but also on the excise duty levied by the centre, the total incidence of price reduction is higher.
The government will consider cutting petrol and diesel prices, if crude oil prices fall below $50 a barrel.
The benchmark Indian crude oil basket is now estimated to average $77.88 a barrel for FY19, compared to the government's earlier estimate of $65 a barrel for the year and $56.39 for FY18
Kudumbashree's new initiatives like onasadya, Onam kits and gift hampers are a huge hit.
Tracking a steep fall in local share market, the Indian rupee on Tuesday washed out initial gains and ended with a loss of 16 paise
Inflation can drop below 8 per cent if confluence of factors like fall in global crude oil followed by a good monsoon work, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council chairman C Rangarajan said.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected inflation to come down below the upper threshold level of 6 per cent by March quarter of the current fiscal. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will keep 'Arjuna's eye' (focus) on the evolving inflation dynamics and will remain 'nimble and flexible' to deal with the price situation. Global commodity prices, including crude oil, have undergone some downward correction, but uncertainty continues to surround the near-term outlook in view of the prolonging geo-political hostilities. Moreover, the resurgence in domestic services sector activity could also lead to price increases, especially as firms pass on input costs.
Jet fuel (ATF) price was on Monday hiked by a steep 56.5 per cent and that of non-subsidised cooking gas LPG by Rs 11.5 per cylinder on the back of firming up of international oil rates, but petrol and diesel prices continued to remain on freeze for a record 78th day. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price was hiked by Rs 12,126.75 per kilolitre (kl), or 56.5 per cent, to Rs 33,575.37 per kl in the national capital, according to a price notification by State-owned oil marketing companies.
With this increase, diesel prices have touched a record high while petrol is at a 56-month peak.
The FAO price index measures monthly price changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar.
