'If the epidemic is sharply contained in a month or two, we have a huge buying opportunity. 'If not, we are staring at a serious economic crisis, the contours of which we are totally unaware of,' warns Debashis Basu.
'Trump is good news for us. Energy poverty is real, and fossil fuels are the answer.'
The fall in crude prices has added to the gains.
Petrol price on Thursday was cut by Rs 6.07 per litre and diesel price by Rs 11.75 in Delhi as oil companies passed on a record reduction in excise duty rates to consumers. Buckling under pressure, the government had on Wednesday cut excise duty on petrol by Rs 5 per litre and that on diesel by Rs 10 a litre to give reprieve to consumers battered by record high retail fuel prices. Since states charge local sales tax or VAT not just on the base price but also on the excise duty levied by the centre, the total incidence of price reduction is higher.
India's exports registered a steepest decline in 13-month falling 9.3 per cent in August to $34.71 billion due to global economic uncertainties, while the trade deficit soared to a 10-month of $29.65 billion. According to the government data released on Tuesday, imports increased by 3.3 per cent to $64.36 billion, which is a record high, due to a significant jump in the inbound shipments of gold and silver.
An oil crisis is set to further hit the fragile global economy.
As of now, the custom duty on gold is 10 per cent.
Global fund managers witnessed one of their largest-ever declines in assets under custody (AUC) during the ongoing correction in the Indian markets, as stocks came under pressure from foreign outflows and the weakening rupee.
The BSE Sensex and Nifty fell more than 2 per cent on Tuesday, heading for their biggest daily loss since the midst of the rupee crisis in 2013
India's exports declined for the fourth month in a row in February to $36.91 billion due to volatility in petroleum prices and global uncertainties. The country's exports stood at $41.41 billion in the same month a year ago.
The benchmark Indian crude oil basket is now estimated to average $77.88 a barrel for FY19, compared to the government's earlier estimate of $65 a barrel for the year and $56.39 for FY18
State Bank of India (SBI), in a report on Friday, claimed a significant decline in the headline poverty ratio in rural areas on account of enhanced physical infrastructure, higher consumption growth in the bottom fractile and direct benefit transfers (DBTs).
The government will consider cutting petrol and diesel prices, if crude oil prices fall below $50 a barrel.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected inflation to come down below the upper threshold level of 6 per cent by March quarter of the current fiscal. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will keep 'Arjuna's eye' (focus) on the evolving inflation dynamics and will remain 'nimble and flexible' to deal with the price situation. Global commodity prices, including crude oil, have undergone some downward correction, but uncertainty continues to surround the near-term outlook in view of the prolonging geo-political hostilities. Moreover, the resurgence in domestic services sector activity could also lead to price increases, especially as firms pass on input costs.
Exports of 19 major commodities, including petroleum products, coal and marine items, saw growth in terms of volume during April 2023-February 2024, even as they witnessed contraction in value terms during the same period. Government officials said the rise in export volume despite a decline in value implies that these commodities show a stronger market demand.
'The government's priority is not farmers.'
US shale oil would act as an alternative to India's heavy dependency on Russian crude, which is currently facing sanctions.
India was the world's biggest importer of Russian oil in February, exceeding China by 20 million barrels.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
Tracking a steep fall in local share market, the Indian rupee on Tuesday washed out initial gains and ended with a loss of 16 paise
Wholesale price-based inflation rate fell to a 3-year low of (-) 3.48 per cent in May on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items, strengthening the case for continuing with the pause in rate hike in the coming months of the current fiscal. This is the second straight month when WPI has been in the negative zone mainly on account of a higher base and falling prices of fuel and manufactured goods. Food prices also eased during May. In May, 2022 WPI inflation was at 16.63 per cent. Last month, it was (-) 0.92 per cent.
Jet fuel (ATF) price was on Monday hiked by a steep 56.5 per cent and that of non-subsidised cooking gas LPG by Rs 11.5 per cylinder on the back of firming up of international oil rates, but petrol and diesel prices continued to remain on freeze for a record 78th day. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price was hiked by Rs 12,126.75 per kilolitre (kl), or 56.5 per cent, to Rs 33,575.37 per kl in the national capital, according to a price notification by State-owned oil marketing companies.
Inflation can drop below 8 per cent if confluence of factors like fall in global crude oil followed by a good monsoon work, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council chairman C Rangarajan said.
Investors should avoid making drastic changes to their asset allocation during a market correction.
With this increase, diesel prices have touched a record high while petrol is at a 56-month peak.
Indian refiners will buy less oil from Saudi Arabia next month as they snap up supplies outside of the Middle East as part of diversification drive amid weakening domestic fuel demand on the resurgence of COVID-19. State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and three other refiners have sought just 65 per cent of the monthly average of about 15 million barrels from Saudi Arabia in May, three sources with knowledge of the matter said. The move follows tensions between India and Saudi Arabia over the Kingdom's hawkish stance on boosting production to cool prices.
The FAO price index measures monthly price changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar.
Wholesale price-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the fifth straight month in August at (-)0.52 per cent, but prices of food articles and fuel showed an uptick. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)1.36 per cent in July. In August last year it was 12.48 per cent. Inflation in food articles remained in double digit at 10.60 per cent in August, lower than 14.25 per cent in July.
Aviation turbine fuel prices in Delhi were slashed by Rs 2,052 per kilolitre to Rs 27,106 per kl, effective midnight on Saturday, an official of Indian Oil Corporation, said. But for the one-off 3.3 per cent increase in rates on January 16, jet fuel prices are declining in tandem with the fall in international oil rates.
Natural rubber prices move in sympathy to Crude Oil prices, and the added firmness is due to fall in production in key producing countries.
US crude is now more than 17 per cent below its opening price at the start of the month and Brent is down more than 16 per cent.
Both crude benchmarks are now down around 20 per cent since their last peak in June
Inflation in food articles during June stood at 2.04 per cent, as against 1.13 per cent in May.
ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank down between 0.2%-1.4% each.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to 4.95 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to fall in prices of food articles and crude petroleum. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was 5.85 per cent in November 2022 and 14.27 per cent in December 2021. Inflation in food articles was (-)1.25 per cent, while in fuel and power it was 18.09 per cent during December 2022.
After Reliance Industries Ltd and its partner bp plc of the UK, Nayara Energy - the nation's largest private fuel retailer - has started selling petrol and diesel at Re 1 less than the fuel sold by state-owned retailers, officials said. While state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) continue to hold prices despite a drop in international rates, private fuel retailers have started passing on the benefit to consumers. "To further stimulate domestic consumption and cater to local customers better, we have introduced a Re 1 discount in our retail outlets until the end of June 2023," a spokesperson for Nayara Energy said.
The weaker rupee will push the country's import bill due to higher payments for crude oil, coal, vegetable oil, gold, diamonds, electronics, machinery, plastics, and chemicals, economic think tank GTRI said on Friday. Citing an example, it said the depreciating domestic currency will increase India's gold import bill, especially as global gold prices have jumped 31.25 per cent, rising from $65,877 per kg in January 2024 to $86,464 per kg in January 2025.
While markets are upbeat over the government decision to nearly double the price of domestically produced natural gas, industry wants it to clearly lay the roadmap for free market pricing regime.
Lower crude prices mean less government outlay for India,
